论文标题:车险费率市场化进程中利润“U”形曲线的经济学分析
Economic Analyses on "U" Curve of Profit during Rate-liberalization of Automobile Insurance
论文作者 王纲
论文导师 何文炯,论文学位 硕士,论文专业 金融学
论文单位 浙江大学,点击次数 6,论文页数 75页File Size6695k
2005-04-15论文免费下载 http://paper.dic123.com/lunwen_285064917/ 费率市场化;“U”形曲线;中介成本;道德风险;博弈
Rate-liberalization; "U" curve; cost of agency;Moral hazard; Game
作为保险业开放的重要举措之一,我国于2002年正式由官方宣布并于次年1月1日起实施车险费率市场化,实际上在这之前因车险经营主体的增加等原因导致市场竞争激烈,费率变相降价已经提前显示市场化的种种迹象。文中以数据分析了从2001年起我国车险进入实质性的市场竞争后,车险的利润曲线走出了明显的“U”形,即先跌后升的过程。本文先通过对其他国家在实施车险费率市场化前后的比较分析,说明利润“U”形曲线的现象在车险费率市场化进程中是普遍存在的,但相比于这些国家,我国的利润“U”形曲线具有不同的特性,这与我国费率市场化进程中的一些特殊因素紧密相关,文中用有关计量统计软件将采集到的浙江省的车险有关数据对车损险和三者险的主要影响因素进行了实证分析,对各项影响因素尤其是中介成本的畸高作了重点分析,证明它极大地加剧了“U”形曲线的陡度,成为影响利润的决定性因素。论文以微观经济学的理论和数理推导,对我国费率市场化进程中的特殊因素对“U”形曲线形状尤其是陡度的影响逐一进行了剖析,对中介费和其他非正常价格竞争手段在车险市场中的决定性作用作出分析,解释了理论上和实践中因不具备相应的前提而导致设计失效的原因。此外,用博弈论的方法分析了保险市场关系人的经济行为动因导致利润“U”形曲线的必然形成。最后,针对“U”形曲线的形成根源指出相应监管对策以减缓费率自由化对行业和社会的冲击。
As one of the important act of automobile insurance industry opening, China officially announced in 2002 a rate-liberalization scheme became effective on January 1, 2003. In fact, due to such reason that insurers increased and competition became drastic, covert premium rate fall gave the evidence of market operation in advance. In this article, data are used to elucidate that profit of automobile insurance presents a "U" curve, which has a climb after drop since the substantial market competition has already begun since 2001. Comparison of profit before and after rate-liberalization in other countries shows "U" curve is a ubiquitous phenomenon during the course. The curve in our country however is different with that in other countries. Some special factors during the rate-liberalization course caused such differences. Metrological & statistical method is used to analyses automobile insurance date within Zhejiang province in the paper. Major effect on Motor Physical Damage Insurance and Third Party Liability Insurance is demonstrated seperatelly. The factors that abnormal high cost of agency and losing control of normal hazard is especially emphasized to be the decisive ones that greatly aggrandize the gradient of the "U" curve. By theory and mathematic derivation method from microeconomics, special factors that affect the "U" curve as well as its gradient during the course of rate-liberalization are analyzed one by one in this article. Agency and
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